Future Hype
Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change
Author: Bob Seidensticker
Amazon info
Having recently read x's book that emphasized that "Change is Accelerating" and therefore everything is on an exponential curve (that only looks flat in the short term), it was interesting to read the opposite view - that many of the really big changes have occurred in the past (cars and electricity come to mind). It was even more interesting to see that Future Hype quotes Kurzweil at one point, not in the least indicating the opposite viewpoint (reminiscent of Gladwell's blurb on the back of Levitt's book - which went on to dismantle one of Gladwell's "Tipping Point" arguments).
But the main thrust of the book is that everything must be considered a system and that any change will be certain to create unintended consequences (although you may not get the intended consequences). The author repeatedly asserts that he is not anti-progress or anti-change, he just wants people to be aware of the full picture. But the picture that he paints is generally that any change will break the system equilibrium in unpredictable ways (which, to some extent is true) and thus the book comes off as anti-change.
As a general optimist about scientific progress, it was good to read the pessimist viewpoint - although much of the argument didn't really stick.