The J Curve
The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall
Author: Ian Bremmer
Amazon info
I don't know the history of this book, but I am going to guess that it started out as a very successful magazine article and someone said "you should write a book about this". The J-Curve in the title is the shape of the curve when you plot a nation's stability (y-axis) vs. that nation's openness (x-axis). Nations with low openness can be remarkably stable and Bremmer calls these "left side nations" (as they reside on the left side of the curve). Examples are North Korea and Cuba. But as openness increases, stability decreases, until open/democratic processes and traditions are in place, at which point stability rises with openness, providing a J-shaped curve.
This should not be surprising to anyone - at least it seemed pretty obvious to me. Some of the ramifications are a little less obvious (others are equally obvious). One key lesson is that the closed/restrictive governments are overthrown from within, not without. Romania's Ceaucescu being one that comes to mind, but this pattern was clear in most of the former Soviet satellite. Thus a good way to foment rebellion is to expose the citizens of a country to outside influences, exposure, thoughts, and products. However, our government's first approach to obstinate coutries is to try isolation - break off relations, enact trade restrictions and sanctions. But this just helps the left side countries further isolate their populace and provides a convenient scapegoat for the dictator (who controls the information) to use to unify his/her own people. Exactly what the curve says is a bad idea.
The book outlines countries at various locations on the curve and these country profiles are the most interesting part of the book. North Korea, Russia, Cuba, South Africa, Israel, and China are covered. And while the analysis is somewhat simplistic, it seems to hit the 80/20 rule quite nicely. This is a book written by a "journalist" and not an "academic" - as he sometimes mentions countries that "fall off the curve" - which doesn't make that much sense mathematically - it means that the curve is incomplete as it can't cover "failed nations". But that quibble aside, it is a good read.
Recommended: To all readers except professionals in the field.